If you have watched the Champions League this week and wondered why there is no more "group stage", then you are far from alone! The competition format changed two seasons ago, and there's still no clear idea of how the new system determines who makes it through and who doesn't.
The short answer: There are no more groups! The 36 clubs are all grouped in one table (the league phase), and the final position in the table is what counts.
The League Phase
The Champions League 26/27 will feature 8 matches in the league phase – down from the previous 6. Four clubs are at home, four are away, and each team is paired with different opponents from four pots of seeds, making no two clubs necessarily play the same schedule. The new format is deliberate, as everybody in a group no longer plays the same four teams.
After the first eight games, it is now all about the standings. Finish in the top eight of the combined table, and you go straight through to the next round. Finish between 9th and 24th and you're not out, but you're not through yet either. Those 16 clubs proceed to a two-match-up series in February, contending for the remaining eight teams in the last 16. Finish 25th or lower, and the competition is done for you until next season.
Why This Actually Changes How You Should Watch It
The most noticeable change from the previous group stage is that a poor game now doesn't matter quite the same anymore. With the old rules, if a player forfeited their first two group games, it was a realistic possibility for the campaign to be over. In this format, a poor start can be made up for with six games left to play.
But that doesn't mean that early results aren't important either. The top eight finishers avoid the extra two-legged play-off tie in February altogether, a high-pressure fixture against another side who just missed out on direct qualification. It's a pretty good early advantage to grab for a large club with aspirations of winning it all.
It also alters the feeling of the fixture list, even from club to club. It is now possible for two teams to get the same points total in the league round while playing entirely different sides, just because of the draw. Remember, the table doesn't tell the whole story.
What does this mean for predictions?
This format rewards consistency over a long run of games rather than one big night and that's exactly the kind of context Rooted Predict tries to bring to Champions League match preview coverage all season. No one is going to pretend to make any 100 sure football prediction today for the top 8 in September. No one can say that just yet, and any site that does will be lying to you if they make 100 sure football predictions this early in the season.
We can track form, as we do when making our free football predictions for the Premier League and other competitions, match by match and change our opinion as the table evolves.
Conclusion
So the thing is, there is one Major League table, eight games per team, and two completely different paths to the knockout stages, based on where you end up. After that, the rest of the Champions League coverage this week will make a lot more sense.
About RootedPredict
Rooted Predict is a football prediction site that offers match predictions, statistics, probabilities, confidence levels and helpful analysis for various football markets. The prediction pages explain why it has chosen certain players to pick, and other features like team form, injuries, head to head history and home and away performance give a context to each pick. Rooted Predict also has Rooted Safe Tips and high-confidence picks made but does make it clear that no prediction is guaranteed to win.