Tottenham are coming into the City Ground without a Premier League goal to their name on Saturday. Roberto De Zerbi's team, after two games, have conceded five goals, and produced nothing worthy of note against Brentford and Newcastle. If you're anyone who has been looking at the Premier League predictions this weekend, this match-up should be a red flag for Spurs.
Form and Key Statistics
Forest has had a lackluster beginning to its start, but it hasn't been catastrophic. The first weekend saw us beaten narrowly by Leeds (1-0) and the second weekend finished in a respectable 2-2 draw at Anfield before we were held up twice late. In those two games, Forest produced a combined 1.94 xG which far exceeded the points off the board for a number of sides.
The story with Tottenham's numbers is far worse. Facing two Premier League matches with no goals scored. Five conceded. A victory over Charlton in the EFL Cup on the night brought some welcome attacking fireworks, but it's not much to go on to gauge the performance of this team in the top flight. Spurs had six shots on target, yet were beaten 2-0 in their last match against Newcastle last weekend – a sign that they are lacking in cutting activity in the right places.
The head to head record is another aspect. Forest have beaten Tottenham four times in their last five Premier League games, twice of which have been a 3-0 win last season. This isn't just a coincidence. The City Ground is a precarious place for Spurs to play and the self-assuredness that goes with that sort of dominance is not to be taken lightly.
Match Analysis
This summer, De Zerbi spent a lot of money. Ten new names have been added—of which Sandro Tonali, Savio, Omar Marmoush, Mohammed Kudus and Mykhailo Mudryk stand out— but this squad is still a jumbled group of parts and pieces. He only won one of his first six games for the Italy manager and looks like he has to get used to the Crystal Palace system before the results come. Spurs appear to be lacking in their play together and still on the defensive cobbles, having given up goals in all 19 league games.
In contrast, under Glasner, Forest are emerging into a recognisable shape. The back three of Milenkovic, Murillo and Jair Cunha provide the physical aspect, and Morgan Gibbs-White is the creative spark. Last season, he scored 15 goals and was the top scorer for Forest as an average of 2.40 points per 90 minutes. They will be in trouble if Spurs can't contain him.
Forest's big question is if they can be more clinical. Three on target against Liverpool is a worry and it will be hoped that the front line will be more aggressive at home. However, against a shaky Tottenham defence, opportunities should come.
Home ground is at work here as well. The City Ground is a very strong place – and outsiders have been known to struggle to make themselves at home there. It will be a bad place for a Spurs team still looking to find its character.
Rooted Predict Verdict
Forest are the better sides in this clash. They have dominated Tottenham in recent years, they have a good defensive record and they have become more familiar under Glasner down the years and it will be in that direction that they have to move. Spurs possess talent, even though on paper that talent is present; talent that isn't cohesive doesn't win football games in early September.
The 1X2 market is in favour of Forest winning, and it does seem to back that up. If you're considering this as one of our free football predictions for this one, it seems like a realistic option that Forest may win, or draw (Double Chance), as Tottenham have yet to score in the league.
Most people will not be able to call more than 2.5 goals. Forest are not good at reproducing and Spurs have been impotent. If this proves to be the brinksmanship style that it has shown so far in the season, then under 2.5 goals may be worth it.
Football is full of surprises and De Zerbi's team could gel at any time. However on the evidence available, it would seem that the City Ground would be the wrong place for that breakthrough.
Conclusion
Forest have home advantage and a defence that's already been tested against strong opposition. Spurs arrive with quality but no points and a growing psychological problem. That combination makes Forest the more logical side to trust here, even if nothing in football is ever truly certain.